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Forests affect the climate
Forests play an important role in regulating the earths temperature
and weather patterns by storing large quantities of carbon and water.
This regulatory function also has a profound effect on the local climate.
Trees provide shade, which in turn lowers summer temperatures and prevents
the soil from drying out. They reduce heat loss from the ground in winter
and prevent storm damage by providing shelter from wind. Global warming,
which on a geological timescale is occurring in the equivalent of a split
second, is significantly upsetting the balance of carbon and water stored
in forest ecosystems. Disruption to this intricate and poorly understood
web of interactions that governs both global carbon fluxes and the very
structure and composition of forest ecosystems is likely to be devastating.
Furthermore, by regulating the global carbon cycle, forests also have
a profound effect on the global climate.
Climate change affects forests
Global warming is believed to negatively affect a substantial fraction
of existing forests and a third of todays forests are likely to
change their species composition. A temperature increase of 3°C by
2100 would result in forest ecosystems having to move 500 km towards the
poles or 500m in elevation in order to find the same climatic conditions.
Such distances are far beyond the average rate of dispersal for individual
tree species, let alone entire forest ecosystems.
Early warnings about the consequences of the impacts
of climate change on forests have been documented in, among others, The
Carbon Bomb: Climate change and the fate of the northern Boreal forests
- a 1994 Greenpeace report which states:
"Studies on the global carbon cycle suggest
that boreal forests are not absorbing as much carbon as they did before
1976. As a result, the atmosphere already appears to contain 10-15 billion
tones of carbon more than it would have if forests had continued to absorb
carbon at the pre-1976 rate. If boreal forests continue to decline, estimates
suggest that burning and rotting of boreal forests could contribute to
the release of up to 225 billion tones of extra carbon into the atmosphere,
increasing current levels by a third. This would accelerate the rate of
climate change."
The Carbon Bomb, p. 2.
While it is possible that the boreal forest could
expand into the frozen tundra as temperatures increase, such an expansion
would likely be delayed by slow tree migration rates. Even in the long-term,
the boreal forest is unlikely to move northward fast enough to compensate
for the breakdown of boreal forests at the southern part into open woodlands
and grassland, which in turn will result in a lowered biological diversity
and a reduced ability of these ecosystems to store carbon and water.
Other forest ecosystems are faced with a similar fate;
according to the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), a UN panel of climate scientists, it is
likely that many tree species will not be able to change their geographic
distribution fast enough to keep up with projected shifts in suitable
climate and extinctions are expected to occur.
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